Barack Obama wins Presidency

CNN calls Ohio for Obama

With Ohio under his belt, there is essentially no way he can lose. Obama only needs the west coast states to win the Presidency.

Obama TaxCut Calcuator

It is a lesser known fact that Obama's tax plan will provide bigger tax cuts for more people than McCain's plan. Obama is especially good for families that make $111,000 or less. McCain's plan is targeted to benefit families that make over $600,000 the most.

Here is a tool to calculate your own taxcut and compare:



Here are some documents that detail the differences:

• McCain / Obama Tax Plan Comparison
  

JibJab

No political blog is complete without a link to the JibJab movie for the 2008 campaign:

Time for Some Campaignin'

And here is the 2004 movie for posterity:

This Land!

Real Palin appears on SNL

Colin Powell endorses Obama

3rd and Final 2008 Debate

2008 Electoral College Scenarios -- Obama Sweep

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

The Obama sweep scenario is looking more likely now that Economic fears grow, and linking of McCain to Bush policies is starting to sink in. The key states in the sweep are:

• VIRGINIA feeding into N. CAROLINA
• FLORIDA + OHIO swinging despite the 2000 and 2004 fiasco
  
• the unswingables INDIANA + W.VIRGINIA following the OH/VA influence
• Southwest sweep: all of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado
  
• No attrition in the border-line lake states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania
  
• and MISSOURI maintaining its role as single-state predictor

My Fellow Prisoners

In the midst of world markets reeling to all time lows and implications of a widening global recession, McCain rallies supporters as his "Fellow Prisoners":

2nd Presidential Debate 2008

Biden vs. Palin - Vice Presidential Debate

Bailout Comparison Stats

Market Capitalization of all publicly traded banks and financial services companies: $900 billion

TARP bailout: $700 billion

Value of all delinquent loans in US: $500 billion

How is the $700 billion going to be invested?  Why not just buy all the delinquent loans, or better yet, socialize all the banks?  At least that model involves an understandable purchase of *equity*.  The main problem with the current plan is that how the money will be "invested" is not clear.

Senate passes financial TARP

TARP (Troubled Assests Relief Program, or Tax Payers aRe P___) version 2.0 passed the Senate 74-25 (the abstain was Senator Kennedy who is on medical leave).  The original bill was amended to add $110 billion in extra tax breaks and some budget spending to sweeten the deal for House dissenters.  It will go to the House Friday for a second go.  If the Economy is truly a heart patient with hardened arteries in need of a triple bypass as Fed Chairman Bernanke suggested, then the House vote will be a true test of the Federal system of Health Care for our economy.

Some new items added:

• Extensive tax credits for renewable energy
• Removal of some AMT rules (incentive stock option triggers?)
• Mandates on Health Care Insurers to cover the Mentally Disabled
• ...

Details on the NO vote for Bailout by the House.

Original

First Presidential Debate 2008

Some positions set forth during Debate

Q: As president, what will you have to give up as a result of the $700 billion bailout?

Both candidates answered by saying what they would not debate.

Obama: Preserve Education, Alternative Energy, Health Care, Infrastructure; optimize spending in existing programs
McCain: Preserve Defense; optimize defense spending

Obama: The surge was a tactic
McCain: The surge was a strategy

McCain: Has a bracelet from a mother whose son died in Iraq and asked him "not to let her son to have died in vain."

Obama: Has a bracelet too from a mother whose son died in Iraq and asked him "not to let other mothers suffer like she has."  No soldier dies in vain.

twittervision the debate

See political tweets in their geographic context!

And here is the raw feed.

Campaign Strategy Slides

Objectively, from the campaign strategy videos alone, the McCain campaign seems more organized.

McCain


They have their blinders on if they don't acknowledge Virginia is a swing state however, and hoping Connecticut goes red sounds like wishful thinking...

Obama


Well the 50 state strategy clearly got tossed -- at least Alaska and the Dakotas. Obama must stay focused to get Virginia, and even N.Carolina. They need to play strong defense in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Speaker comments on bailout

McCain Policy Videos

HEALTH CARE


EDUCATION


ECONOMIC POLICY


FOREIGN POLICY

Obama Policy Videos

Barack Obama has outlined his policies clearly in a series of speeches while campaigning over the past few months.

EDUCATION


ECONOMY


HEALTH CARE


FOREIGN POLICY


EQUALITY
"A More Perfect Union"


PATRIOTISM

McCain will Debate after all

Debates are on -- YAY! I wonder if Rachael Maddow's mocking factored in to help McCain decide to fly to Mississippi after all:

SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF


DESPERATE TIMES


McCain's BAD WEEK

Palin's 2nd interview

Palin was "tapped" as she likes to say to be McCain's VP candidate 30 days ago. So far, she has faced the media every 2 weeks. Here is her second interview *ever* as a VP candidate with Katie Couric on CBS:





And for posterity, here is the first interview with Charles Gibson on ABC:

Day 1 Part 1


Day 1 Part 2


Day 2 Part 1


Day 2 Part 2


Day 2 Part 3

McCain "suspends" his campaign and cancels Letterman interview

Paulson kneels for the deal

Some scenes from capitol hill today, as congress refuses to write a blank check days before they go on their vacation (some interesting excerpts from recent NY times articles):

"If money isn't loosened up, this sucker could go down," President George W. Bush declared Thursday as he watched the $700 billion bailout package fall apart before his eyes, according to one person in the room.

But once the doors closed, the smooth-talking House Republican leader, John A. Boehner of Ohio, surprised many in the room by declaring that his caucus could not support the plan to allow the government to buy distressed mortgage assets from ailing financial companies.

Mr. Boehner pressed an alternative that involved a smaller role for the government, and Mr. McCain, whose support of the deal is critical if fellow Republicans are to sign on, declined to take a stand.

In the Roosevelt Room after the session, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr. literally bent down on one knee as he pleaded with Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, not to "blow it up" by withdrawing her party's support for the package over what Ms. Pelosi derided as a Republican betrayal.

“I didn’t know you were Catholic,” Ms. Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr. Paulson’s kneeling, according to someone who observed the exchange. She went on: “It’s not me blowing this up, it’s the Republicans.”

Mr. Paulson sighed. “I know. I know.”

Senator Christopher Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Senate banking committee, denounced the session as "a rescue plan for John McCain" in an interview on CNN, and proclaimed it a waste of precious hours that could have been spent negotiating.

Bailout per person analysis

Group Description	Population	% total
US population in 2007	301,000,000	100%
US adult population in 2007	221,000,000	74%
US taxpayers in 2007	138,000,000	46%
US taxpayers paying more than $0 in 2007	91,000,000	30%
US family households in 2007	76,000,000	25%
US households with children under 18 in 2007	33,500,000	12%

So, a $700,000,000,000 bailout would amount to the following amounts per person:

Every person in the US: $2,325 per person
All adults in the US: $3,482 per adult
All taxpayers in the US: $5072 per taxpayer
All non-zero taxpayers in the US: $7692 per paying taxpayer
All family households in the US: $9210 per family household
All households with minor children in the US: $20,900 per household with children

Census data

There have been a wide range of per-person numbers reported, including chain mails on Facebook sayig $350,000 !? per adult, and even mainstream media saying $15,000 per household.

The closest thing that results in the $15,000 number per household would be:

US white married family households in 2007: 53,000,000
All married white families in the US: $13,207 per white married family

Even this stretch comes up short, and the very notion of mainstream press reporting "$15,000 per household" where household means white, married, families with children is just deceptive. I wonder how they arrived at the $15,000 number.

Navigate the Federal Budget

This poster presents the breakdown of the entire federal budget. Zoom and pan into here to see the exact breakdown of military spending and other expenditures:

Questions about the Bailout

Here are some questions that are and aren't being asked about the bailout. First, what is *not* being asked:

1) Why the Friday deadline? Seems like no one is asking this, and the main answer is that Congree is going on vacation after Friday. Certainly the Bush administration and Treasury are bringing this up at a bad time, but shouldn't Congress seriously consider postponing their break, and staying in session longer to consider more closely this massive government outlay? If there are specific banks at risk, they aren't being named directly.

2) Why $700 billion? Did Paulson just come up with this number? How about starting with a smaller number and then coming back to Congress for a follow-on request?

Then some good questions that are being asked:

3) Why no oversight? Dodd and the Senate Banking Committee made clear they would not accept the original "no oversight" clause proposed by Paulson.

4) Will golden parachutes be eliminated? Again, Dodd is on this.

5) Where is the money going to come from? Chris Matthews of Hardball asked this, and speculated sale of T-Bills, but then went to a commercial break, and did not get details on this from his guests.

Paulson makes his case for $700 billion

Let's remember that he is proposing to buy bad mortgage assets that have no market, no one other buyers, and would be written down by the banks as a loss... Question #1 should be why are all the purchases to be done in secret with no oversight or legal recourse?? Clause 8 needs to be questioned directly.

Face the Nation


This Week with George Stephanopoulos - Part 1


This Week with George Stephanopoulos - Part 2


Meet the Press - Part 1


Meet the Press - Part 2


A take on how we got here:


Last time we saw Paulson was when he pitched the Stimulus package earlier this year. Same arguments "We need to do this quickly.... We need to keep this simple..."

Wall Street Bailout

The bailout plan has been released.  The plan cost is $700 billion.  This is in addition to $200 billion for Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, and $85 billion for AIG.  Total bailouts in the past 2 weeks round up to $1 trillion.

The full text of the plan is here.

The plan can be summarized as follows:

1) This plan is called "The Biggest US federal Bailout EVER" or BUBE (exact name tbd)

2) The Treasury Secretary will be allowed to spend the money however he wants including a) forming entire new government departments and hiring people b) issuing government contracts at will and hiring private corporations as he sees fit c) purchasing entire banks or financial service companies d) buying up mortgages e) give more details on this later.

3) This act is meant to a) stabilize the financial system b) minimize taxpayer cost.

4) Congress will get a self-assessment report card issued by the Treasury every 6 months. (see secrecy clause 8)

5) Mortgages purchased are in full control of the government, including a) the right to repossess the underlying properties b) the right to extract revenue from auction, sale, or rental of that property c) the right to repackage mortgages in default as federally insured debt d) the government is stuck with any and all debt purchased before the 2 year deadline.

6) This bailout is limited to $700 billion.

7) To pay for the bad loans that will be purchased under this act, we can sell good T-bills, taxpayer money, or just print money.

8) The details of how the $700 billion are spent will be secret, and no review or legal action will be allowed. 

9) This offer expires in 2 years.  Spend it quick!

10) Our national debt limit will be expanded to $11.3 trillion.

11)  Cost of mortgages purchased will follow Bush 41 era laws on the subject.  (Why is this clause in here -- are there new updated laws that are being regressed?)

12) Mortgage = Mortgage, Treasury Secretary = Treasury Secretary, USA = USA

Borrow and Spend

For years the Republicans have been generalizing Democrats as "Tax and Spend".

After 8 years of Bush, what cloth have the Republicans cut for themselves?

Borrow and Spend Republicans: Bush doubled the federal deficit from $5 trillion when he took office to $10 trillion today.  He is overseeing a $500 billion annual deficit, over 25% of which is the war in Iraq.  Sure he gave us (especially the wealthiest of us) massive tax cuts.  But that didn't stop his spending spree; he just maxed out the federal credit card instead.

Deregulate and Forget Republicans: taking all government oversight out of the system is a bad idea.  Without laws and penalties for fraudulent behavior and gross abuse systems fall apart.  Basically overly optimistic deregulation allows for chaos to ensue, a blind eye is turned as the bandits come out of the woodwork, and then massive triage is required to repair the damage in the form of huge bailouts.

Health Plans Compared

McCain plans to tax employee health benefits as ordinary income.  It is generally agreed that this will lower and in some cases eliminate health benefits offered by employers.

Obama plans to offer the large, competitive pool of congressional health plans to all citizens.  This will offer more choice and flexibility to all.

Videos outlining both ideas are here.  One thing that the Tully, the commentator hyping up the McCain plan does not address is how cancer patients and others will be treated -- massive deregulation will result in people with pre-conditions going bankrupt as described in the Obama video.  Tully only focuses on how ordinary folks will get a few more dollars of take home pay while they are young and healthy by avoiding dermatology appointments and other "unnecessary" care.

Tax plans compared

Source : washington post

The word has not gone out: Obama's tax plan is much better for the majority of Americans! The vast majority of Americans make less than $111,000 per year, and for those folks, Obama gives a *bigger* tax cut.

Also largely unknown is that Seniors will pay *no income tax* on the first $50,000 under the Obama/Biden plan.

Click on the image above to see the figures in a larger font, or go to the source article at the Washington Post.

Lose your house, Lose your vote

A disconcerting new development reveals a potential loophole in voting regulations that can be exploited in critical swing states. Both Ohio and Michigan have huge amounts of foreclosures, and when people lose their homes, they lose their address and potentially their right to vote ... Reports show that Republicans may be teaming up with foreclosure tracking companies to actually target such distressed households and suppress their votes. That the Democrats disenfranchised the entire state of Florida and Michigan during their primary was very disappointing, but now these proposed Republican tactics are undermining the confidence of the electoral process. 2000, 2004, and now this ...

State-by-state list of homeless voters rights.

Tax Disclosures of the 2008 Presidential Candidates

2006 Tax Returns for all the candidates

Candidate	Total Income	Total Tax	Bracket
Barack and Michelle Obama	$991,296	$277,431	28.0%
Joe and Jill Biden	$248,459	$42,832	17.2%
Candidate	Total Income	Total Tax
John McCain	$358,414	$96,933	27.0%
Cindy McCain	$6,066,431	$1,730,952	28.5%
Sarah and Todd Palin	????	????

2008 Electoral College Scenarios -- Dead Heat

Here are two very possible dead heat scenarios (Obama 269, McCain 269). Both would likely result in an Obama victory because of Democratic control of Congress.

2004 results
+D Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado
-D New Hampshire

aka Gore + Colorado


2004 Results
+D New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia
-D Michigan

Palin Spoof Videos

The presidential choice through a taxation prism

Source : washington post

So if your family makes less than $111,645 then Obama gives you the bigger break. If you make more, McCain's got your back. Only families making more than $603,403 will pay more under either candidate.

With the country approaching $10 trillion in dept, only Obama has a plan that directly increases revenues. To do a full analysis would require factoring proposed plans from both candidates on spending and anticipated economic growth.

It is interesting that the McCain camp makes a blanket statement that Obama will increase *your* taxes. Who is McCain speaking to? Only the families that make more than $600k? Denial of the clear analysis of the public tax plans seems to play right into Obama's argument that McCain "doesn't get it", and that McCain actually believes his supposed joke that the middle class are families making under $5 million.

Obama to clinch the Democratic Nomination

Delivered by a slew of superdelegate declarations ahead of the S. Dakota and Montana primaries, Obama will surely claim the title of the 2008 Democratic Primary Winner tonight.

MI and FL reinstated representation at 50%

The DNC (Democratic National Committee) just voted to seat all of the Florida and Michigan delegates at the convention, but to only provide them 1/2 a vote each.  This improves upon the original disenfranchising of these states' votes as punishment for moving their primaries forward in violation of the parties rules.  The debate on the topic was heated, but the final resolution was a consistent ruling for both states involved and preserved some form of punishment for violating the original rules.  The big losers in all this are the actual voters who have witnessed the gross stratification of power between common folk and super-delegates.

This link is to 2008 Electoral College models of Obama and Clinton vs. McCain in the general. And polling data on the topic is here.

Iraq is his Viagra

A hilarious interview with Huffington on the Cobert Report included some disturbingly possible commentary on John McCain including:

"He will be the oldest president ever elected ... Because he has such a passion for Iraq, that is his Viagra" said Huffington.

"The warning on that should be: if your erection lasts more than a hundred years, pull out." was Colbert's quick retort. 

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Obama fully denounces Wright

Obama fully distances himself from a 3 day press blitz by Former Pastor Reverend Wright. Obama made clear his outrage and disappointment in Wright, and reiterated that they in no way share views.

The half delegate

So this post should be about how Clinton got what she needed from the voters in Texas and Ohio.  And perhaps that would follow into the concern of many that the Democrats won't have a decisive candidate before the convention.  I'd like to draw attention to a more minor detail of the whole process, and that is the half delegate.  WHAT IS A HALF DELEGATE?  I first noticed this while browsing the New York Times results summary:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html

You will notice that in "Democrats Abroad" that Clinton received 1.5 delegates to Obama's 3.  As of the date of this post, you would also notice that the New York Times is estimating Obama will receive 159.5 delegates based on a Survey of Superdelegates.  

So  in the case of the survey, a half delegate *could* be someone who basically said they'll flip a coin on the day of the vote.  While not all that helpful to report in a race this close, it is a valid statistical way to describe a delegate in such a quantum probabilistic state.  But in the case of the Democrats abroad, 1.5 delegates have pledged their vote for Clinton.  Does this mean that US territories get less of a vote?  I can't imagine someone agreed to give their arms to Obama and legs to Clinton.  What gives?

Last Stand at Austin Debate

The Democratic debate in Texas is in many ways Clinton's last stand against Obama's continuing momentum. The results were mixed. Factoring out an alleged low blow by Clinton early on when she accused Obama of xeroxing his speeches, most of the discourse was extremely cordial. The candidates stressed their similarities, dodged direct questions to point out their differences, and complimented each other regularly -- it was almost as if the two had struck a secret deal to be running mates no matter how it turned out. By the end however, Clinton came out the clear winner of the debate. She was more articulate throughout, came out ahead with her mandate for universal health coverage, and moved the audience to a standing ovation with an emotion evoking closing statement. In many ways she hit it out of the park, the question is will it be enough for her? Opinion polls were more mixed than this assessment -- with reactions split down the middle. Since it is unlikely either candidate will achieve the 2025 delegates needed to secure the nomination, the best result for Democratic voters would be if they did eventually agree to run together, and teamed up against McCain with a unified pair of candidates that the country is familiar with and excited about.

Fidel Castro steps down

Fidel Castro stepped down today from the position of "Comandante en Jefe" of Cuba, the only Communist state in the Western Hemisphere. His younger brother of 5 years, Raul Castro, is expected to replace him.

The Potomac Push

Obama sweeps up post-super-tuesday states and surpasses Hillary Clinton to lead in delegate count, states won, and popular vote. The race is essentially a dead-heat draw except when inertia is accounted for in which case Obama comes out ahead. Recent states picked up by Obama include: Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Idaho, Maine, Virginia, Maryland, and DC. Clinton hasn't won a state since Feb. 5th, and in fact has lost by no less than 20% margins: primary map.

In Republican news, McCain remains the de-facto winner, and is now facing a backlash from the ultra-right-wing press. Talk radio hosts are questioning whether he is conservative enough, and mentioning to their listeners a preference for the devil or Clinton over him. Romney dropped out after super-Tuesday despite being a clear choice for republicans concerned about the economy. Huckabee continues to dazzle the evangelicals, especially in the South, but not enough to win it seems to pull ahead without "a miracle".

Super Duper Tuesday In Effect!

Don't forget to vote!

Tuesday results are expected to be very interesting -- especially the Democratic challenge in California. Hillary Clinton is getting lots of buzz surrounding her being a "two for one" deal, and the possibility of Obama as her ultimate running mate after a rather cordial debate. Barack Obama has tons of momentum as well following his endorsement by the Kennedy clan, including California native Maria Shriver. The clan mentioned his surrounding himself with "people of high integrity", and being most like California as reasons to go for the Change candidate. Many Hillary voters are wanting to get both -- Hillary now and Obama later -- generally reasoning that the other way around is a no-go. The state is not all-or-nothing for the Democrats, so it should prove to provide a swath of delegates for both candidates.

Democratic Voters Disenfranchised in Michigan and Florida

A fairly underreported story in my view is the fact that all the Democratic voters in Florida, the sunshine state, have been effectively disenfranchised this year. They, along with Democratic voters in Michigan, will have no say in who the Democratic nominee will be. Usually this sort of punishment is reserved for felons, but this year, because the legislators of these states decided to move their primaries "too early", all potential Democratic voters for both states have been penalized. I believe the driving force in this decision was the Chair of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean. That will teach voters to cower and fear his pterodactyl cry! Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the voters of such critical swing-states respond in the general election when their vote finally does count.

Hillary picks up New Hamsphire and Nevada

It is currently old new that Hillary Clinton won New Hamsphire in an upset. Early polls gave the state to Barrack Obama by 10% points. Many claim her teary-eyed Q&A session with voters is what gave her the edge. I'm pretty sure the debate had more to do with it -- and that answering the "how to handle a nuclear attack" question gave her the edge she needed. Also, she was in a huge lead until Iowa -- perhaps many decided voters had swayed for a moment in the polls and then regrouped when forced to assess Obama's experience weakness. As for Nevada, the Union endorsement for Obama made it seem like he had a chance to steal it away. Still assessing the polling numbers and final results for that one...

The Audacity of Iowa

Obama swept up the Iowa Caucus, and is looking like he will continue his sweep through New Hampshire and South Carolina. This is a big blow to the Clinton organization, and shows that Obama is pulling in new voters and youth at a fast clip. This increase of voter turn-out surprised many pundits, and is a great sign of improvement of interest in the political process by the electorate. Obama greatly increased his likelihood of being the Democratic nominee. He may have more trouble than Clinton in the general election if faced up against someone like McCain who hast vast experience. Obama is certainly a fantastic motivational speaker, but did not draw as much confidence as Clinton with his response to tough questions in the New Hampshire debate like how to prevent and respond to a nuclear attack. Clinton remains ahead in early polling in super Tuesday states such as California, but the winners of early states have enormous power to sway.

One annoying fallout of Obama's Iowa victory is all the copy-cat and me-too campaigning going on. Obama nicely branded his campaign around two words: Hope and Change. Stump speeches by every single major candidate now have moved to the defensive with most candidates urging desperately that they are for change too. Romney said the word change perhaps 22 times in 30 seconds in a recent speech. Clinton is urging how she has delivered change over the past 35 years and doesn't just talk about it. Finally, Edwards talks about how Clinton is merely the status quo and that he and Obama are the only agents of change.