Last Stand at Austin Debate

The Democratic debate in Texas is in many ways Clinton's last stand against Obama's continuing momentum. The results were mixed. Factoring out an alleged low blow by Clinton early on when she accused Obama of xeroxing his speeches, most of the discourse was extremely cordial. The candidates stressed their similarities, dodged direct questions to point out their differences, and complimented each other regularly -- it was almost as if the two had struck a secret deal to be running mates no matter how it turned out. By the end however, Clinton came out the clear winner of the debate. She was more articulate throughout, came out ahead with her mandate for universal health coverage, and moved the audience to a standing ovation with an emotion evoking closing statement. In many ways she hit it out of the park, the question is will it be enough for her? Opinion polls were more mixed than this assessment -- with reactions split down the middle. Since it is unlikely either candidate will achieve the 2025 delegates needed to secure the nomination, the best result for Democratic voters would be if they did eventually agree to run together, and teamed up against McCain with a unified pair of candidates that the country is familiar with and excited about.

Fidel Castro steps down

Fidel Castro stepped down today from the position of "Comandante en Jefe" of Cuba, the only Communist state in the Western Hemisphere. His younger brother of 5 years, Raul Castro, is expected to replace him.

The Potomac Push

Obama sweeps up post-super-tuesday states and surpasses Hillary Clinton to lead in delegate count, states won, and popular vote. The race is essentially a dead-heat draw except when inertia is accounted for in which case Obama comes out ahead. Recent states picked up by Obama include: Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Idaho, Maine, Virginia, Maryland, and DC. Clinton hasn't won a state since Feb. 5th, and in fact has lost by no less than 20% margins: primary map.

In Republican news, McCain remains the de-facto winner, and is now facing a backlash from the ultra-right-wing press. Talk radio hosts are questioning whether he is conservative enough, and mentioning to their listeners a preference for the devil or Clinton over him. Romney dropped out after super-Tuesday despite being a clear choice for republicans concerned about the economy. Huckabee continues to dazzle the evangelicals, especially in the South, but not enough to win it seems to pull ahead without "a miracle".

Super Duper Tuesday In Effect!

Don't forget to vote!

Tuesday results are expected to be very interesting -- especially the Democratic challenge in California. Hillary Clinton is getting lots of buzz surrounding her being a "two for one" deal, and the possibility of Obama as her ultimate running mate after a rather cordial debate. Barack Obama has tons of momentum as well following his endorsement by the Kennedy clan, including California native Maria Shriver. The clan mentioned his surrounding himself with "people of high integrity", and being most like California as reasons to go for the Change candidate. Many Hillary voters are wanting to get both -- Hillary now and Obama later -- generally reasoning that the other way around is a no-go. The state is not all-or-nothing for the Democrats, so it should prove to provide a swath of delegates for both candidates.

Democratic Voters Disenfranchised in Michigan and Florida

A fairly underreported story in my view is the fact that all the Democratic voters in Florida, the sunshine state, have been effectively disenfranchised this year. They, along with Democratic voters in Michigan, will have no say in who the Democratic nominee will be. Usually this sort of punishment is reserved for felons, but this year, because the legislators of these states decided to move their primaries "too early", all potential Democratic voters for both states have been penalized. I believe the driving force in this decision was the Chair of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean. That will teach voters to cower and fear his pterodactyl cry! Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the voters of such critical swing-states respond in the general election when their vote finally does count.

Hillary picks up New Hamsphire and Nevada

It is currently old new that Hillary Clinton won New Hamsphire in an upset. Early polls gave the state to Barrack Obama by 10% points. Many claim her teary-eyed Q&A session with voters is what gave her the edge. I'm pretty sure the debate had more to do with it -- and that answering the "how to handle a nuclear attack" question gave her the edge she needed. Also, she was in a huge lead until Iowa -- perhaps many decided voters had swayed for a moment in the polls and then regrouped when forced to assess Obama's experience weakness. As for Nevada, the Union endorsement for Obama made it seem like he had a chance to steal it away. Still assessing the polling numbers and final results for that one...

The Audacity of Iowa

Obama swept up the Iowa Caucus, and is looking like he will continue his sweep through New Hampshire and South Carolina. This is a big blow to the Clinton organization, and shows that Obama is pulling in new voters and youth at a fast clip. This increase of voter turn-out surprised many pundits, and is a great sign of improvement of interest in the political process by the electorate. Obama greatly increased his likelihood of being the Democratic nominee. He may have more trouble than Clinton in the general election if faced up against someone like McCain who hast vast experience. Obama is certainly a fantastic motivational speaker, but did not draw as much confidence as Clinton with his response to tough questions in the New Hampshire debate like how to prevent and respond to a nuclear attack. Clinton remains ahead in early polling in super Tuesday states such as California, but the winners of early states have enormous power to sway.

One annoying fallout of Obama's Iowa victory is all the copy-cat and me-too campaigning going on. Obama nicely branded his campaign around two words: Hope and Change. Stump speeches by every single major candidate now have moved to the defensive with most candidates urging desperately that they are for change too. Romney said the word change perhaps 22 times in 30 seconds in a recent speech. Clinton is urging how she has delivered change over the past 35 years and doesn't just talk about it. Finally, Edwards talks about how Clinton is merely the status quo and that he and Obama are the only agents of change.