Super Duper Tuesday In Effect!

Don't forget to vote!

Tuesday results are expected to be very interesting -- especially the Democratic challenge in California. Hillary Clinton is getting lots of buzz surrounding her being a "two for one" deal, and the possibility of Obama as her ultimate running mate after a rather cordial debate. Barack Obama has tons of momentum as well following his endorsement by the Kennedy clan, including California native Maria Shriver. The clan mentioned his surrounding himself with "people of high integrity", and being most like California as reasons to go for the Change candidate. Many Hillary voters are wanting to get both -- Hillary now and Obama later -- generally reasoning that the other way around is a no-go. The state is not all-or-nothing for the Democrats, so it should prove to provide a swath of delegates for both candidates.

Democratic Voters Disenfranchised in Michigan and Florida

A fairly underreported story in my view is the fact that all the Democratic voters in Florida, the sunshine state, have been effectively disenfranchised this year. They, along with Democratic voters in Michigan, will have no say in who the Democratic nominee will be. Usually this sort of punishment is reserved for felons, but this year, because the legislators of these states decided to move their primaries "too early", all potential Democratic voters for both states have been penalized. I believe the driving force in this decision was the Chair of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean. That will teach voters to cower and fear his pterodactyl cry! Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the voters of such critical swing-states respond in the general election when their vote finally does count.

Hillary picks up New Hamsphire and Nevada

It is currently old new that Hillary Clinton won New Hamsphire in an upset. Early polls gave the state to Barrack Obama by 10% points. Many claim her teary-eyed Q&A session with voters is what gave her the edge. I'm pretty sure the debate had more to do with it -- and that answering the "how to handle a nuclear attack" question gave her the edge she needed. Also, she was in a huge lead until Iowa -- perhaps many decided voters had swayed for a moment in the polls and then regrouped when forced to assess Obama's experience weakness. As for Nevada, the Union endorsement for Obama made it seem like he had a chance to steal it away. Still assessing the polling numbers and final results for that one...

The Audacity of Iowa

Obama swept up the Iowa Caucus, and is looking like he will continue his sweep through New Hampshire and South Carolina. This is a big blow to the Clinton organization, and shows that Obama is pulling in new voters and youth at a fast clip. This increase of voter turn-out surprised many pundits, and is a great sign of improvement of interest in the political process by the electorate. Obama greatly increased his likelihood of being the Democratic nominee. He may have more trouble than Clinton in the general election if faced up against someone like McCain who hast vast experience. Obama is certainly a fantastic motivational speaker, but did not draw as much confidence as Clinton with his response to tough questions in the New Hampshire debate like how to prevent and respond to a nuclear attack. Clinton remains ahead in early polling in super Tuesday states such as California, but the winners of early states have enormous power to sway.

One annoying fallout of Obama's Iowa victory is all the copy-cat and me-too campaigning going on. Obama nicely branded his campaign around two words: Hope and Change. Stump speeches by every single major candidate now have moved to the defensive with most candidates urging desperately that they are for change too. Romney said the word change perhaps 22 times in 30 seconds in a recent speech. Clinton is urging how she has delivered change over the past 35 years and doesn't just talk about it. Finally, Edwards talks about how Clinton is merely the status quo and that he and Obama are the only agents of change.

Countdown to Iowa

The Iowa caucus is merely 8 days away! Here are some predictions for the initial two states and Feb 5th:

IOWA: (D) Edwards -- he is swooping up the tiny rural districts which give equal voting power to 2500 residents as the larger urban centers... Why Iowa voters have *so* much power is beyond reason!
(R) Huckabee -- his christian charisma seems to sway the evangelicals despite his questionable ideas for a federal sales tax to replace income tax.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: (D) Obama -- Obama's call for change will resonate somewhere. New Hamsphire voters seem to like candidates that change the status quo.
(R) McCain -- he won it in 2004, and currently trails Romney here, but may be able to steal it away with last minute momentum.

Super Duper Tuesday: (D) Clinton -- first female president with "two for one" ballot has a draw for many.
(R) Romney -- seems to get more interest from Conservatives looking for a reasonable candidate. He's flip-flopped quite a bit, but Gulianni seems to not have much going for him other than 911 scare tactics.

Bhutto Assassinated

Pakistan Prime Minister elect Benazir Bhutto was assassinated yesterday. Her father was the first democratically elected leader in Pakistan, and she was the first and only female elected to office there. She spend much of both her terms in exile. Her death occurred in the face of imminent elections to occur only 3 weeks later. Her tragic death risks leaving the region destabilized, or at least further away from moving to a true democracy for sometime.

One interesting observation was the reaction by US leaders to this tragedy. Cable news carried no live statements from George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton. Barrack Obama and Chris Dodd however both quickly came on the air and spoke to how the situation should be handled in a wise way. Mitt Romney also appeared on the air, but was challenged when asked to speak to policy changes he would make in response to this event.

Senator Clinton and Edwards commented the next day. Both called for similar focus points (possible POTUS / VP ticket combination?) -- independent international investigators to determine the exact cause of death and those responsible. Despite the delay of the response, both of these candidates gave good, wise responses. Hillary Clinton was especially scathing towards the Bush administration's strategy in the region.

Las Vegas Democratic Debate Recap

Clinton and Obama reinforced their top two position during the Las Vegas Debate. Clinton really recovered from her setbacks during the past few weeks, and came of strong and collected during the entire debate.

Edwards lost ground and even got booed when he mentioned Hillary takes money from lobbiests in response to Hillary discussing how humbling and historic the possibility of becoming the first ever female president is. She finished her clip by mentioning that 95 year old women wait in line for hours to shake her hand, and say things like "I was born before women could vote and want to live to see the first female president." It almost brought tears to my eyes. Why Edwards would follow that with a weak attack on funding sources is baffling.

Obama did fairly well, but had some obvious slip-ups like calling his proposed 1 trillion dollar tax increase by lifting the income cap for Social Security a tax cut.

Polling numbers